2023 Share of Electricity from Renewable Energy Resources in Japan [Preliminary Report]
Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies
June 10, 2024
Summary
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Share of renewables to electricity generated in Japan
The percentage of total electricity generated in Japan (including on-site consumption) by power source in 2023 was estimated from the Electricity Survey Statistics[1] and nationwide electricity supply and demand data[2] . As a result, the share of renewables in Japan’s total electricity generation in 2023 was 25.7% (Table 1, Figure 1).
The share of renewables, which was about 15% in 2016, increased by more than 1 percentage point annually to 22% by 2021, and reached 25.7% in 2023, up 3.0 percentage points from the previous year (2021) (Figure 2). Among these, solar power generation reached 11.2%, up from 9.9% the previous year, and is gradually approaching the PV share (15%) assumed in the power source composition for FY2030 by the Sixth Basic Energy Plan (approved by the Cabinet in October 2021). Combined with the 1.0% share of wind power, the share of VRE (variable renewables) is 12.2%, up more than 1 percentage point from 10.8% in the previous year. As for renewables other than solar power, the share of electricity generated from biomass power was 5.7%, a significant increase from 4.6% in the previous year. Meanwhile, wind power accounted for 1.0%, up from 0.85% the previous year, and geothermal power accounted for 0.28%, up slightly from the previous year. Hydro was 7.5%, down from 7.1% the previous year. By month, May 2023 had the highest share of electricity generated from renewables, reaching 35.1% (Figure 3). In this May, the share of solar PV was higher at 15.6% and the share of variable renewables (VRE) reached 16.5%.
The data for wind power generation is not based on electricity survey statistics (amount of electricity transmitted and received by electric utilities), but on the amount of electricity transmitted based on electricity supply and demand data published by electric power companies. In addition, although data from the Electricity Survey and Statistics is used for the amount of electricity generated by photovoltaic power generation, it should be noted that the data is about 10% larger in terms of annual transmission volume than the electricity supply and demand data, so there is a range of estimation for the proportion of photovoltaic power generation. Specifically, in the electricity survey statistics, the annual amount of electricity generated by PV was 113 TWh, while the amount transmitted by electricity supply and demand data was 92 TWh. Since the estimate for residential solar power is 3.5 TWh, the combined total is 95.5 TWh, which is more than 10% smaller, resulting in a 9.5% share of solar power generation. The estimated amount of electricity generated from the Electricity Survey and Statistics is the sum of the amount of electricity reported by electric utilities (retail electric utilities and power producers above a certain size) and the amount of electricity received from non-electric utilities, so the figure may be larger due to double counting and other factors.
Thermal power generation is on a declining trend, accounting for 66.6% of electricity generated in 2023, down from 72.4% the year before and down about 17 percentage points from 2016, but still at a high level. For coal-fired power, the share decreased from 30.2% in 2016 to 26.5% in 2021 but increased to 28.3% in 2023; for LNG, there is a consistent downward trend from 38.9% in 2016 to 29.0% in 2023. Nuclear power, on the other hand, increased from zero in 2014 to 6.5% of electricity generated in 2019, then decreased to 4.8% in 2022, but increased to 7.7% in 2023.
Table 1: Renewable Energy as a Percentage of Total Electricity Generated in Japan
Source: ISEP from Power Supply Survey Statistics, etc.
Figure 1: Power source composition of Japan as a whole (preliminary for 2023)
Source: ISEP from Electricity Survey Statistics, etc.
Figure 2: Share of Renewable Energy in Total Electricity Generated in Japan
Source: ISEP from Electricity Survey Statistics, etc.
Figure 3: Monthly share of renewables in total electricity generated in Japan (preliminary 2023)
Source: ISEP from Electricity Survey Statistics, etc.
Figure 4: Annual Electricity Generation and Power Source Composition in Japan
Source: ISEP from Electricity Survey Statistics, etc.
Comparison of share of renewable energy with other countries
Since the 1990s, the European Union (EU) has been leading the world in the introduction of renewable energy in the electricity sector, with the share of electricity generated in the EU as a whole exceeding 30% in 2017 and reaching 44.3% in 2023, more than 40% in 27 EU countries, far exceeding the 32.8% share of electricity generated from fossil fuels. This is much higher than the 32.8% share of electricity generated from fossil fuels. This is nearly twice the share of renewable electricity in Japan. The share of variable renewable energy (VRE), such as solar and wind power, also reached 26.6% in Europe as a whole, more than twice the share in Japan (about 12%).
Figure 5 shows a breakdown of the percentage of electricity generated annually from renewables in 2023 for major European countries, the United States, China, and Japan. This figure is based on the latest data from the UK think tank Ember on the global electricity sector for 2023:[3] . In Denmark, where the share of variable renewables (wind and solar) VRE has already reached 67%, renewables account for 87% of annual electricity production, with wind alone accounting for 58%. In Austria, hydropower accounts for 59%, and together with wind power (12%) and biomass (5%), the share of renewables has reached 84.5%. In Sweden, the share of renewables is 69%, in Portugal 73%, and already in Germany (52%), Spain (50%), and the United Kingdom (46%) the share of renewables has reached around 50%, above the average for Europe as a whole. and in Germany it is over 39%. In France, on the other hand, where the share of nuclear power is over 65%, the share of renewables is only 26%.
Figure 5: Comparison of the share of renewables and other energy sources in electricity generated in European countries and in the United States, China, and Japan (2023)
Source: ISEP, based on data from Ember, Electricity Survey and Statistics, etc.
A comparison of the share of renewables in annual electricity generation in European countries and Japan from the 1990s to 2023 shows that European countries have steadily increased the share of renewables since the 1990s toward the year 2020 (Figure 6). In Denmark, the share was already 17% in 2000, but it exceeded 30% in 2010, reached 87% in 2023, and is aiming to exceed 100% renewables electricity by 2030.[4] In Denmark, 20 years of experience since 2000 in the power system has resulted in integrated solutions to provide more than 50% of electricity from variable renewables VRE from wind and solar in the power system and power market.
Figure 6: Renewable electricity deployment performance and policy targets in European countries and Japan
Source: Compiled by ISEP from EU Statistics Directorate, Ember data, etc.
Share of renewables in Japan's domestic electricity supply and demand
The data is based on monthly electricity supply-demand data published by 10 general transmission and distribution companies for each area in Japan, and is compiled for the year 2023, focusing on the ratio of renewable energy to grid electricity demand. ISEP's Energy Chart provides an interactive and easy-to-understand analysis of electricity supply and demand data in Japan using a variety of graphs from publicly available data. [5]
The share of renewables in Japan's total annual electricity cunsumption averaged 22.3% in 2023 , up from an annual average of 20.5% in 2022 (Figure 7). The share of solar PV was 10.7%, and together with the 1.2% share of wind power, the share of variable renewables VRE was 11.9%. Solar PV increased from 9.6% in 2022, a larger share than hydropower at 7.8%. Biomass power generation increased to 2.3% from 1.9% the previous year. Meanwhile, the share of nuclear power in 2023 was 9.0%, up from 5.9% the previous year.
Figure 7: Share of renewables and nuclear power generation by each month of 2023 in Japan
Source: Electricity supply-demand data of TSO’s
The monthly average of the share of renewables in Japan's total electricity consumption was highest in May 2023, at 32.5%, up from 30.3% the previous year. The share of VRE (variable renewables) also reached a maximum of 16.5% at this time, up from 15.4% in April of the previous year. The daily average reached 41.2% on May 2, 2023, and the maximum VRE share was 24.2% on the same day. The one-hour value for the share of renewables peaked at 77.4% on May 3 at 10:00 a.m., with solar PV at 59.9% and wind power at 1.2%, for a one-year peak VRE of 61.2%. Incidentally, the peak value for wind power was 4.7% before dawn on November 11, 2023.
By TSO(electric utility company for transmission and distribution) area, the highest average share of renewables in annual electricity consumption in 2023 was 40.5% in the Hokkaido area (Figure 8). Solar and wind power accounted for 10.3% and 6.9%, respectively, the highest in Japan, and the VRE share was 17.2%, while hydro power also accounted for a large share at 16.2%. The Hokkaido area also has the highest share of biomass power in Japan at 6.7%, and geothermal power at 0.3%. The Tohoku area, which ranks second in terms of renewable energy share, has the highest VRE share in the country at 19.3%, with solar power at 13.6% and wind power at 5.6%, while the overall share of renewable energy has reached 40.2%. The share of hydroelectric power is also relatively high at 14.3%, and geothermal power is second only to the Kyushu area at 1.4% The average share of renewables in eastern Japan as a whole in 2023 is 21.9%, lower than the national average of 22.3%. This is largely due to the fact that the Tokyo area only accounts for 14.6%. On the other hand, the share of VRE was 12.1%, higher than the national average of 11.9%. This is due to the fact that wind power generation accounts for 1.9% of the total, higher than the national average of 1.2%.
Figure 8: Share of renewables in electricity supply and demand by area (2023)
Source: Electricity supply and demand data from TSO's
In 2023, the share of renewables for all of Central and West Japan is 22.7%, higher than the national average of 22.3%, while solar PV and wind power combined account for 11.2% and 0.6% of VRE, respectively, for a total of 11.8%. On the other hand, nuclear power plants, which have zero operations in eastern Japan, and those operating in the Kansai, Kyushu, and Shikoku areas in central and western Japan, account for a much larger share of 16.5% than VRE, a considerable increase from 10.7% the previous year. In the Hokuriku Electric Power Area, which ranks third in terms of renewable energy share, the share will reach 35.9% by 2023, but solar PV and wind power will account for 6.1% and 0.9%, respectively, and the VRE share will be relatively low at 7.0%, while hydroelectric power will have the highest share among all areas in Japan at 26.4%. In the Shikoku area, which ranks fourth in terms of the share of renewables, the share was 34.4%, up from 28.9% in 2022, while the share of nuclear power was 21.7%, down from 27.9% the previous year. In the Shikoku area, solar power accounted for 16.6%, the highest percentage in the nation, and wind power 2.0% combined for 18.6% of VRE, the second highest level in the nation after the Tohoku area. In the Kyushu area, the share of renewables was 28.4%, and the share of VRE was 16.6%. Of this total, solar accounted for 15.8%, down from 16.2% the previous year, and wind accounted for 0.8%. On the other hand, the share of nuclear power reached 36.2%, the highest in the country.
In 2023, six areas (Hokkaido, Tohoku, Hokuriku, Chubu, Shikoku, and Chugoku) exceeded 100% of electricity demand from renewables in terms of hourly values (Figure 10). In 2022, the previous year, the Kyushu area was added to the seven areas, but the Kyushu area did not exceed 100% in 2023 (the maximum was 92.9%) due to an increase in the output curtailment rate. In the Shikoku area, on the other hand, the share of renewables to electricity demand reached 123.1% at 10:00 on May 3, 2023. At this peak, solar power accounted for 91.7%, wind power for 1.4%, and VRE for 93.1% (the maximum for solar power was 93.2%). In addition, 26.4% of hydropower and 3.7% of biomass together accounted for 123.1%. Even in metropolitan areas, in the Chubu area, where output control has begun, the share of renewable energy has reached a maximum of 109.2% (maximum of 92% for solar). In the Kyushu area, where output control has been implemented, the ratio of solar energy was up to 83.2% at the peak hourly value. At this time, wind power was at 0.1%, with a VRE ratio of only 83.3%, and output curtailment was not implemented. In the Kyushu area, on the other hand, the VRE ratio before output curtailment reached a maximum of 132.5% (at 12:00 on April 9, 2023). At that time, the VRE ratio was suppressed to 53.1% (60% output suppression rate) due to VRE output suppression.
In the Kyushu area, VRE (solar and wind) output suppression has been in place since 2018 among all areas in Japan, and the VRE output suppression rate for the entire year of 2023 was 8.9%, a significant increase from 3.0% in 2022. In the Kyushu area, 11.99 GW of PV power generation has already been connected to the power grid under the FIT system as of the end of December 2023, and together with 630 MW of wind power generation, the VRE connected capacity exceeds 12 MW. Furthermore, there are about 4 million kW of nuclear power plants in the Kyushu area, and in 2023, the operating rate of nuclear power plants was high and their share of electricity was as high as 36.2%, so the VRE output curtailment is thought to have been greatly affected by the operating rate of these plants. VRE output curtailment has started in other areas except Tokyo area by around April 2023. In the Shikoku area, where nuclear power plants are operating, the rate of VRE output suppression is 1.6% and 0.7% in the Kansai area. As for areas where nuclear power plants are not operating, the rate is as low as 0.02% in the Hokkaido area, 0.75% in the Tohoku area, 0.53% in the Hokuriku area, 0.22% in the Chubu area and 0.17% in the Okinawa area On the other hand, the Chugoku area has a high percentage of VRE output suppression at 3.4%. Although VRE output suppression rules have been reviewed and the use of VRE online control is progressing, the rules have become more complex and have not yet been optimized for the entire power system. In the Kyushu area, inter-regional interconnection lines are being used effectively, but supply-demand coordination over a wide area, including the Shikoku, Chugoku, and Kansai areas, has not yet been fully implemented, so further improvement of interconnection line operation and expansion of interconnection lines is required, including in other areas. There are areas in Kyushu where pumped storage power generation is fully utilized and other areas where it is not yet fully utilized. In the future, the use of storage batteries, DR (Demand Response), VPP (Virtual Power Plant), etc. will be required.
References
[1] Electricity Survey Statistics http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/statistics/electric_power/ep002/
[2] The estimates use the previous year's values for the estimated on-site consumption of private power generation and residential PV after October 2023, but the impact is expected to be small.
[3] Ember(2024) "Global Electricity Review 2024", https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/global-electricity- review-2024/
[4] Danish Energy Agency, "The development of flexibility and its role in the Danish electricity system," https://www.isep.or.jp/archives/library/13612
[5] ISEP Energy Chart http://www.isep.or.jp/chart/en
